Without the state

June Whitfield

Probably not known outside the UK, but a great comic actor with perfect timing.

https://www.theguardian.com/tv-and-radio/gallery/2018/dec/29/june-whitfield-a-life-in-pictures

An end to free movement

Up to now this has been a Brexit free zone, but inevitably as I disengage from Facebook, that must change.

A frequent mantra from the leave side has been the call for an 'end to free movement of people'. It's worth deconstructing that statement to expose the illiberal elements behind so much of the Leave campaign.

The argument is of course couched in terms of stopping 'them' from coming here and taking our jobs. There is no evidence of that in reality, but we'll pass that by for now. Creating the idea of the 'other' is one of the first steps of dictators and would-be dictators everywhere. That 'other ' doesn't even have to exist of course, but if you have a visible target it makes it so much easier. That's what's behind the hyperbole of the leavers as they endlessly and angrily froth at the mouth every time any of the 'little people' has the temerity to speak up.

But we'll pass over that for now, too.

What none of them are saying is that the end to free movement cuts both ways. As we stand, anyone in the EU has unlimited ability to trade, work or study anywhere else in the EU - that's over 500m people and a collective economy worth around $19m representing about 22% of the world economy. The UK economy makes great use of that facility - watch any news item about medical or scientific research and you will see them. According to a report produced by the British Academy some 40,000 non-UK EU staff work in UK universities. These people are critical to maintaining the high standard of UK Universities in international league tables. Looking the other way, research by the Royal Society (pdf) indicates that almost 70% of active UK researchers in the period 1996 – 2011 had published articles for which they were affiliated with non-UK institutions, indicating that they had worked abroad at some point during that period. Some of those researchers may have moved for relatively short periods, but UK-based researchers also move for longer periods: 21% of UK-based researchers worked abroad for a period of two years or more during the same period.

All of this is at risk. In January it was reported that over 2,300 EU academics resigned from British universities in 2016-17,  a 19 per cent increase in departures compared to before the EU referendum, and a 10 per cent rise from 2015-16. It seems likely that this applies outside academia too. The government recently published (pdf) an analysis showing all Brexit scenarios would hurt the economy while a separate report from the Bank of England, warned economic output in the U.K. could drop by as much as 8 percent if Britain drops out of the EU without a deal in place, compared to expectations had the U.K. stayed in. That compares to a 6.25 percent drop during the 2008 financial crisis.

Best estimates for British citizens in the rest of the EU are that there are between 1.8 million to 3.6 million British people living part-time or full-time in the EU27. This is imprecise because of the difficulties of reconciling data from 27 different countries with different definitions (so much for the EU juggernaut) but even the lowest is significantly higher than the suspiciously precise ONS estimate in April 2018 of 748,900, although much closer to the UN estimate that had been previously accepted of 1.22m. The difference lies in the fact that thge ONS definition only includes people living elsewhere in the EU for 1year or longer. This excludes seasonal workers, second-home owners, students and other mobile individuals who move backwards and forwards and who, having exercised their rights to freedom of movement, are as likely as any to be affected by Brexit. I'm a case in point - in 2000-2005 I earned  a substantial part of my income from contracts in Ireland, based in the UK, but travelling regularly to Ireland for meetings and site visits.

British residents in Spain appear to be a significant issue. This paper concludes that "there are some frail, vulnerable people that may fall through a support gap, whereby they are no longer the responsibility of UK welfare services, yet not fully recognised in their new country of residence..." Depending on the outcome of Brexit many of these people may find themselves forced to return to the UK, a country they may have left decades before, possibly impoverished and requiring significant social care. The implications for an already stressed adult care system in the UK are unknown.

You will hear none of this from Johnston, Rees Mogg or their ilk. What you get is magical thinking , self-delusion or meaningless empty phrases (pdf).

In real life though:

You have to believe in facts. Without facts there's no basis for cooperation. If I say this is a podium and you say this an elephant, it's going to be hard for us to cooperate.

Barack Obama

As Obama said in the same speech, the denial of facts could be the “undoing” of democracy.

“People just make stuff up,” he said. “They just double down and lie some more. Politicians have always lied, but it used to be that if you caught them lying, they’d be like, ‘Oh, man.’ Now they just keep on lying!”

 

 

Life on Mars?

Will we ever have significant settlements of human beings living off-planet? Not according to this post at Crooked Timber. The author, John Quiggin says bluntly " humans will never go out to explore this universe, or even leave Earth in significant numbers." He offers lots of arguments including a comparison of the rates of progress in information technology with those in physical engineering. Even so, I'm not convinced, although as a long time reader of Science Fiction I admit that may just be wishful thinking. I'm not alone though and many of the comments, while recognising the need for major advances in various areas in order to make progress, still argue that we will be able to do it. This comment in particular sets out the real progress that has been made in space technology since the days of Apollo and the moon landings. All agree though that in order to achieve anything we need to survive as a species first, which is increasingly not assured as we ransack the planet and despoil its ecology.

All I know is that contrary to what I thought at the time of the landings, I won't be around to see that first footprint on Mars.

 

The decline of Facebook

Facebook usage declined in 2018 for the first time ever - at least in the US. It wasn't just a small decline either, but back to 2015 levels from 67 percent of Americans aged 12 and older to 62 percent of that same audience. This drop is seen in every age and gender demographic as well. It’s not as if only young people, or older Americans, or women are using Facebook less. Every studied group is using Facebook less. That's still a huge number of course, but it is significant. I'm not in the US but I'm a good example I think of why this decline is happening.

Their lack of real concern for privacy coupled with the refusal of Zuckerberg to answer questions in the UK about alleged interference in the UK referendum via Facebook (and possibly also in elections via Cambridge Analytica) came together to build a real suspicion of the whole platform. Of course I never trusted them fully in the first place, any more than I trusted any other giant corporation, but now that distrust is active, based on things I suspect they did, rather than passive and based on general suspicion about lack of action on their part.

The other factor in my case, that led me about a year ago to leave almost all the groups I'm in, was a substantial number of disturbing and distressing examples of racism and antisemitism dropped into ordinary discussion threads as if of no consequence. Add to that the increasing numbers of only just literate posts on almost any topic and the apparent inability of too many people to read more than a sentence without missing the point just led to a general stepping back.

I realised that my use of Facebook was also a factor in my failure to keep up this blog. It was easy to post a short paragraph or a link, but also too easy for vituperative arguments to erupt over nothing in particular or over some alleged slight in the choice of a word or phrase leading in the end to as much time being taken, but much less fruitfully, over that paragraph as would have been the case over a couple of thousand words in a blog post. I didn't reach as many people of course, but if a reader can't follow an argument over the equivalent of a page or two of text, they are quite frankly not my target audience anyway. We need to find a way to reach those people but I'm not the one to do it.

Length is not of course a guarantee of meaningful content as the vapid outpourings from the likes of Boris Johnson demonstrate. It's at times like this that I miss the likes of Christopher Hitchens

Beware the irrational, however seductive. Shun the Supernatural and all who invite you to subordinate or annihilate yourself. Distrust compassion; prefer dignity for yourself and others. Don't be afraid to be thought arrogant or selfish. Picture all experts as if they were mammals. Never be a spectator of unfairness or stupidity. Seek out argument and disputation for their own sake; the grave will supply plenty of time for silence. Suspect your own motives, and all excuses. Do not live for others any more than you would expect others to live for you.

or my old blog contact Norman Geras

We should be, without hesitation or embarrassment, utopians. At the end of the twentieth century it is the only acceptable political option, morally speaking. I shall not dwell on this. I will merely say that, irrespective of what may have seemed apt hitherto either inside or outside the Marxist tradition, nothing but a utopian goal will now suffice. The realities of our time are morally intolerable. Within the constricted scope of the present piece, I suppose I might try to evoke a little at least of what I am referring to here, with some statistics or an imagery of poverty, destitution and other contemporary calamities- But I do not intend to do even this much. The facts of widespread human privation and those of political oppression and atrocity are available to all who want them. They are unavoidable unless you wilfully shut them out. To those who would suggest that things might be yet worse, one answer is that of course they might be. But another answer is that for too many people they are already quite bad enough; and the sponsors of this type of suggestion are for their part almost always pretty comfortable.

I can't claim to match either of these greats, but for the future expect me to spend less time on Facebook and more time writing or blogging.

The long tail and original art

One of my aims when I opened my Etsy shop selling vintage graphics was to have as wide a variety of images available as possible. It took me a while before I realised this was tapping into something called the 'long tail'. The graph shows how this works. The area in yellow is the same as the area in green, but represents a large number of distinct items sold in relatively small quantities, rather than the small number of items sold in large quantities represented by the green area, which is where the best sellers like the Dan Brown books or '50 Shades' series are to be found.

By aiming for wide variety, I am targeting this long tail. At first this was an accident, now it is a deliberate tactic. Note that this is not the same as catering for a 'niche' market. As a strategy, niche marketing is aimed at being a big fish in a small pond, concentrating all your efforts on a small but specific and well defined segment of the population. Catering to the long tail is the opposite. Because I print to order and therefore don't have to either anticipate what will sell or keep large stocks, I can spread my efforts very widely. As a comment on the Longtail blog linked at the end of this article put it "The market is a mile wide and an inch deep".

I'm not alone in this of course, this is the Amazon model where over time products with a low sales volume collectively make up a market share that rivals or exceeds the relatively few current bestsellers and blockbusters, provided that distribution channel is large enough. This is why I wouldn't attempt this approach on an independent web site. Etsy as a brand already brings huge numbers of people to their site and I can tap into their searches to make my sales.

This possibly also explains why original art doesn't sell so well on Etsy or similar sites. The market for 'things to hang on the wall' is huge. That part of it looking for original works of art is much smaller. Out of that smaller market the proportion who will like your style and subject will be even smaller even if they find you. In addition, since the search process relies on using words to find images, the search terms for original art are very much harder to pin down, especially for abstract art. There are visual search tools but they do not have the reach of Google text searches. In my case it is even more difficult because Etsy's failure to properly differentiate between reproductions and originals or even between a downloadable file and the physical image once printed, makes the search results whether on site or via Google, hopelessly contaminated. 

Based in part on: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Long_tail

I didn't find it until I'd finished writing, but see also this site:

http://www.longtail.com/the_long_tail/faq/

Core Housing UK style

In an earlier post, I proposed an adaptation of the core-housing approach adopted in developing countries, with serviced plots on which would be constructed a basic unit of one living room, a kitchen and a bathroom. The plots would be big enough to allow extensions and additions to this core provision as the owners needs grew and changed, without the need to move and incur estate agents and legal fees. The original planning permission for the site would allow for the construction of a dwelling over no more than a fixed proportion of the plot area, without requiring anything other than Building Regulation approval. This would probably done by creating a Local Special Development Order setting out some basic parameters, such as maximum plot coverage and storey limits plus perhaps some rules about development at the boundaries.

In this post I’m going to look at how this could work through the stories of six different households.

Alfred and Grace Hitchcock

…are newly married. They are currently living in a small flat with no outdoor space, a tiny shower room and minimal cooking facilities. They have very little savings. Both are currently working, Alfred is a mechanic while Grace is an administrator in a local doctor’s practice. They fully intend to have children, but don’t want to do so while in their present flat.

James and Gloria Stewart

…have been married for about 7 years, Their son, Harvey is about to start school and Gloria is looking to get back to work part time. They do not intend to have any more children. James works in IT management. Before Harvey was born, Gloria had been working in a local architectural practice as a CAD technician and graphic designer. They currently live in a 2 bed flat, rented from one of the partners in the architectural firm where Gloria worked. He is looking to sell and they need to move within the next 12 months.

George and Stephanie Lucas

…are on the point of retiring. They have a large house and garden, with no mortgage, but Stephanie is in poor health with a progressive illness and they recognise the need to move to a smaller house that can be adapted to meet their needs. Before she fell ill both of them enjoyed their garden and want to retain some outdoor space that can be easily maintained. George is an engineer, while Stephanie taught French and Spanish at the local secondary school. They have two grown up children, both married, each with one child

David Lean

…is divorced, in his early 40s. He has no children. He is a plumber and general builder. He currently rents a flat and a separate lock up in which he keeps his tools and materials. He also plays in a band in the evenings and weekends and enjoys a full social life.

John and Mary Ford

…are in their 40s with two children, girls aged 12 and 14. They currently live in a standard 3 bed semi built about 15 years ago. As their children get older, they would like to provide them with space to do school work and to socialise with friends in ways that don’t disrupt the house for their parents. John is a butcher with his own shop, while Mary works part time as a teaching assistant. She would however very much like to get back to making pottery, having studied ceramics at university and worked for a while as a studio assistant to a well known artist.

Alice and Carol

…are two students at the local university.

***

For the purposes of this post, I’m assuming each plot has a road frontage and provided with all mains water, electricity and if available gas, plus phone line and broadband connection. Basic provision on the site will be the core unit of a single room plus a kitchen and a bathroom. Foundations will be adequate to take a two story building in traditional construction. All purchasers will be provided with a pack showing full details of all services plus technical details of foundations and a site survey at sufficient detail for setting out any further building work. Constructional details for a range of extensions will be available for purchase from the developers. First occupants will also have the option of a 'turnkey' deal for the construction of any extensions.

The plots vary in size but all are large enough for a two story family house.

***

With very limited money Alfred and Grace decide to live in just the basic unit but they buy the constructional details to add a bedroom when they are ready. The basic unit is about the same size as their present flat, but they will have the full plot available on which they intend to grow their own fruit and vegetables while they save.

Next door, James and Gloria need to build additional space from the start. They extend sideways and build a new storey above both the basic unit and the extension. On the first floor they create two bedrooms and a bathroom. Downstairs they extend the kitchen into the former bathroom and open it up to the room adjacent. The extension becomes their new living room.

George and Stephanie decide to keep their new house on one floor. They extend in both directions to create two new wings at right angles to the core. In one wing they create a large bedroom and a fully accessible wet room, with space and storage for equipment such as hoists to cater for Stephanie’s needs as her illness progresses. The new bedroom opens directly onto a small garden space with level access for a wheelchair. In the other wing they create two rooms. One is a guest bedroom with a shower. This will also be available for live in carers to use if need be. The other is a small office/studio space that Stephanie can use to take private students for language classes either individually or in small groups. It has its own door accessible from the street so that students can come and go without disrupting the rest of the house.

David Lean decides not to extend for the moment but to build a two storey detached building with the aim of storing his tools and materials on site. He builds this on the boundary with a garage and store on the ground floor and an office and music room above, incorporating high levels of acoustic insulation across the whole building. Before buying he has checked that the planning permission for the development allows for the possibility of running businesses such as his.

John and Mary extend in a similar fashion to George and Stephanie, in both directions, although they also build upwards. On one side of the core unit they build a wing with two bedrooms accessed off a third room across the front of both. This provides a shared living space for their two daughters and incorporates a bathroom and toilet. They allow for an independent entrance into this area, but do not construct it yet. On the other side they build a two storey extension. On the ground floor they create a ‘parent space’ with a bedroom and bathroom on the first floor. The core unit becomes a large kitchen-dining area.

After about a year;

Alfred and Grace decide to construct the additional bedroom, using the pre-purchased plans, which will effectively double their living space. As the work is about to start, they discover that Grace is pregnant, so requiring a hasty revision. They subdivide the new bedroom to the rear by creating a small room to use as a nursery. They make sure water and drainage services are available to this extension since they are not sure what its long term use will be.

After a couple of years;

Alfred and Grace decide to have another child. They have both had promotions and are financially more secure. Alfred is now workshop manager and Grace has become Practice Manager. Their daughter is also growing and needs more space. They decide to build a new wing on the other side of their living area with two bedrooms and a bathroom. The small room used by their daughter will become an en-suite bathroom and the core unit will become a single kitchen-dining area.

James has become disenchanted with working for a large company and wants to set up on his own account. He decides to set up as an IT trainer. He only needs an office at home since most of his work will be on the clients premises. He builds a simple freestanding garden office. Gloria will work with him as a trainer from time to time, but she is looking to develop her own career.

David decides he needs a larger living space. He is now engaged and with his new partner gets finance to build a new two storey extension. The ground floor will become a new kitchen dining area, with a bedroom and bathroom above. The old kitchen and bathroom will be stripped out and large new glass doors put in to give access to the garden, so that the whole of the original core unit becomes a living space.

After another few years;

the Ford’s children have now left home. They could downsize, but Mary’s mother is becoming frail and needs support. She moves into the space that had been used by the two girls and they insert a tiny kitchen for her, as well as opening up a separate front door.

Gloria Stewart and Mary Ford have decided to go into business together as a design consultancy. David has given up his business and now works for a local builder's merchants. He rents out his old office and store to Gloria and Mary, putting in an outside staircase to give him a separate access to his music room.

Stephanie has died and George is finding the house too large for him. He decides not to move however but instead subdivides his house, selling the space that had been used by the carer in Stephanie's last years to David and his new wife living on the adjacent plot, to incorporate into their own house to give space for his expanding family. He retains his old kitchen dining area and bedroom/ bathroom, in the knowledge that as he grows older it will continue to be usable.

After the death of Mary Ford's mother they let the small flat as a separate unit to Alice and Carol, a couple of students at the local university. Alice works part time for Gloria and Mary, while Carol provides care and domestic support for George and some other elderly residents in the area.

After a few more years;

George has now died while David and his wife have moved away. George’s children buy back the portion sold off to David and reinstate the original house which they then sell to Carol and Alice who are after graduation have now married. Alice is now a journalist and freelance writer while Carol is working as a physiotherapist, working from the space Stephanie had used for language classes.

David’s old house is sold to Penny and Albert Marshall. They are a middle aged couple whose children have left home. They have no need for the music room so sell the whole building to Gloria and Mary whose design consultancy is growing and needs more space.

***

I could continue in this vein, but my aim is not to tell family stories but to illustrate how designing for flexibility in use and the creation of a liberal enabling framework for small scale developments can generate both social and economic benefits. I’m not suggesting it is a model for everyone. Some people would rather move than build while others will need to relocate with new jobs. Nor is this about self build, although there is no reason why it could not be done that way. It might even be easier, with the site and core accommodation secure.

If however we are to tackle the real crisis in housing in the UK and the exclusion of young people from secure access to housing, then we need a radical rethink. All too often a so-called starter homes is simply very small. The approach described here allows that initial tiny property to grow and adjust to changing family circumstances without the disruption and loss of community caused by having to move elsewhere.

Reboot

For the nth time, I'm going to try to restart this blog. I spent a while going back over some old posts and decided I don't want to let it go. I'm not going to change the name this time. The idea behind the title is still relevant and can be stretched to cover the other things I want to write about. I may add in art for sale, either my originals or the reproductions , but they won't be too prominent and may even be on a separate page.